Traders on Intrade, the Ireland-based political stock market that allows users to predict world events, say there is a 74 percent chance that the Supreme Court will toss out the individual mandate in Obamacare.
The Obamacare market has more than 1,000 shares trading for as much as $8.50 per share over the past week. The market began to turn against Obama’s defining legislative achievement in March, following three days of oral arguments. The chances of overturn jumped 20 points to 60 percent after Obama Solicitor General Donald Verrilli Jr. stumbled through tough questions from conservative judges, as well as moderate Justice Anthony Kennedy and liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor.
Intrade, a $68 million market as of January 2012, has a good track record of forecasting American elections. Traders correctly predicted all 50 states in the 2004 presidential election and 48 states in 2008, according to spokesman Carl Wolfenden.