Iowa Republican Joni Ernst has taken the lead in the state’s closely fought Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
Ernst is leading Rep. Bruce Braley (D., Iowa) 50-44 percent among likely voters. She also has a seven point edge with independent voters, a crucial voting bloc.
"The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
Respondents also said Ernst, a state senator and Iraq War veteran, was more honest and trustworthy, cared more about their needs and problems, and has stronger leadership qualities.
"Sen. Ernst's television commercials and campaign have presented her as a born and bred Iowan, who never lost her farm girl values…The fact that more voters think she cares about their needs than does Braley is telling," Brown said. "That is a measurement that many Republicans, even winning GOPers, lose."
"Some pundits back east may have made fun of her shooting hog ads, but they send an effective message to Iowans that she is one of them," he added.
Additionally, 28 percent of those surveyed said their vote is mainly a vote against President Barack Obama. Similar results in other states "could produce the kind of wave for which Republicans are hoping," Brown said.
The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,167 likely Iowa voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
According to the Real Clear Politics poll average the race remains a virtual tie, despite more outside spending by groups allied with Braley.