Many residents of Puerto Rico fled to Florida in the wake of Hurricane Maria's devastation, sparking expectations that there would be an influx of overwhelmingly Democratic voters to the Sunshine State.
So far, the expectation has not materialized: the number of newly registered Hispanic voters in Central Florida is not at the level many expected after Maria hit the island on Sept. 20, the Orlando Sentinel reported late last week.
In Central Florida, where about one third of the million Puerto Ricans in the state lived before the hurricane, 9,341 new Hispanic voters were registered between Sept. 20 and Dec. 31, state records show. They made up fewer than half the total new voter registrations in the four counties during the same period.
Less than 30 percent of new Hispanic voters in Central Florida registered as Democrats during that time. Meanwhile, 63 percent have registered as independents and 8 percent as Republicans.
The Sentinel notes that as a group Puerto Rican's have historically identified as independent but voted Democratic. Nevertheless, the number of new Hispanic voters–Democrat, independent, or otherwise–hasn't met expectations.
Democratic strategist Steve Schale warned that the new residents can't be counted on to boost Democrats' hopes in the state, which is looking toward both 2018 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections.
"A lot of people in the party think this is just going to happen," Schale said. "But if you look at the data so far, it’s not just happening. It’s not going to happen on its own."
The reality in Florida contradicts numerous mainstream media predictions, which overwhelmingly predicted a massive change in Florida politics as a result of Hurricane Maria.
- In late October, NBC News wrote that after Hurricane Maria, "Puerto Ricans could be the Sunshine State's swing vote."
- The New York Times wrote in early October an article titled "An Exodus From Puerto Rico Could Remake Florida Politics."
- CNN wrote in late November that "The Puerto Rican migration could shape Florida politics for years to come."
- The Associated Press reported in November that Hurricane Maria had Flordia "anticipating a political shakeup in a battleground state dominated by the Republican party."
- Politico predicted in September that the mass exodus of Puerto Ricans following the hurricane "could well prove to be a boon to Democrats in a state which the past four top-of-the-ticket races have been decided by about a percentage point."