Instead of just giving you my picks for the Oscars this Sunday, I figured I'd add a little value by telling you not only who I think will win but also how you could make a little scratch if I'm wrong. Here are my picks to win and value picks—that is, picks with decent odds at the bookies—in case you happen to be somewhere where gambling is legal.
Best Picture
For the first time in a while, there seems to be some legitimate doubt about which film will take home the best picture. Personally, I still think that 12 Years a Slave will win: It's an "important" film and I believe that most voters who don't put it at the top of their ballot will place it number two. This is key because best picture, unlike the rest of the awards, uses a run off system to pick a winner if no film winds up on the top of 50 percent of the ballots. Given the fact that we're seeing a three-way tossup between 12 Years, Gravity, and American Hustle, that run-off will definitely come into play.
What I find baffling is that Vegas oddsmakers are treating 12 Years as a stone cold lock. Entertainment Weekly's oddsmaker is giving it 1:3 odds (meaning you'd have to bet $300 to win $100). The folks at "Bovada," whatever that is, are giving the film even better chances to win: 2:11 (meaning you'd have to bet $550 to win $100). Meanwhile, Gravity is getting either 5:1 or 4:1 and American Hustle is getting between 12:1 and 15:1.
For the record: I still think 12 Years a Slave will win. But if things are as tight as Jeffrey Wells and the rest of the Oscar bloggers are predicting, you're getting an amazing value by wagering on either (or both!) of its closest competitors. Were I in Vegas I'd throw down a c-note on each without batting an eye.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron's going to win (another indication you should take a second look at Gravity, though director-best picture splits have become more common in recent years). But 12 Years' Steve McQueen isn't a terrible value at 5:1 or 6:1. I'd probably stay away from this category.
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey is going to bring the Golden Age of Matthew McConaughey to new heights by taking the statue. (Is there a prop bet for him starting his acceptance speech with "Alright alright alright"? If there is, jump on it.) There's no value in betting on him, however, at 1:5. If you're a fiend for action, you could do worse than putting $25 on Bruce Dern. At 40:1 that'd net you $1,000. And crazier things have happened.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett survived the Woody Allen controversy and will take home her second Oscar. Again, no value in betting on her. But at 15:1, Amy Adams is an attractive option: she did win the Golden Globe, after all, and the largest voting bloc—actors—really liked American Hustle.
Best Supporting Actor
This is Jared Leto's to lose, and I don't think he's going to lose it because of a few petulant children in the LGBT (especially the "T") community. Jonah Hill at 30:1 isn't bad value, but it's not going to happen. Another category to simply avoid.
Best Supporting Actress
This is a really interesting category. 12 Years' Lupita Nyong'o was an early favorite, then America's Sweetheart Jennifer Lawrence came charging on hard before fading. I think Nyong'o will win, but there's no value on betting on either of them. The dark horse you want to throw some cash on is Jane Squibb. I don't think she'll win, but at 33:1 a $30 bet wins you a grand. Worth a shot!
Best Original Screenplay
The oddsmakers have Her and American Hustle are in a dead heat, which I find intriguing. I can't imagine the academy, which skews older, giving Jonze the win, so I'm picking Hustle. But there's still good value to be found: At 15:1 or 20:1 Dallas Buyers Club is something to consider. It's a historical melodrama about the privations of Hollywood's favorite minority in their darkest hour. It wouldn't be out of the question for that film to win this award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Another category to stay away from: 12 Years is almost certainly going to win, as one may be able to tell due to the 1:6 odds. And none of the other flicks in the category scream upset. Avoid.