My must read of the day is "The wave has failed to materialize," by Eugene Robinson, in the Washington Post:
When summer began, the conventional wisdom was that the GOP sorta kinda probably maybe would take control of the Senate in November. As summer ends — and it hasn’t been great for President Obama, which means it also hasn’t been anything for the Democratic Party to write home about — that same equivocal assessment still holds.
The Real Clear Politics website, which aggregates polls, rates nine Senate races as tossups. If incumbents Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Mark Pryor of Arkansas manage to scrape out wins, the Web site calculates, Democrats will retain a 51 to 49 edge and Harry Reid gets to keep his job as majority leader.
Let’s say that one of those Democrats falters — or even two. […]
All in all, you still have to give the edge to the GOP. But it is a surprisingly narrow and tenuous advantage in a year when some analysts were predicting a wave election in favor of Republicans.
So far, just ripples.
This is an utterly preposterous narrative—and it seems to be a rather popular one this week.
All the talk about a wave, or lack thereof, is nonsensical.
Firstly, as I noted Tuesday, it’s largely irrelevant whether there is a "wave" for Republicans in the House. A five or six seat gain is still a comfortable majority, and a success for Republicans.
Secondly, the discussion of a wave—whether you say it’s going to happen or not—is a bit of smoke blowing. It’s not something you can definitively identify right now. Amy Walter, of the Cook Political Report, explained this by noting that there are just as many Senate races considered "almost certain to flip" as there were around this time in 2010.
Walter goes on to write, "The dirty little secret is that we ‘see’ a wave on Election Night and not before. As the results come in, we start to see a very discernible pattern as the closest races break disproportionally to one party."
Republicans making grand claims of a wave was a political campaign statement. As was the Democrats’ declaration that their post 2012-priority was to flip the House in 2014.
Realistically, most analysts—or anyone who follows elections—have said they do not expect to see a significant Republican "wave," in the Senate or House, but no one should say the possibility is undoubtedly dead because of something that’s happening today. Too many races are too close. We just don’t know, and those hyperboles are best left to the politicians.