SENATE/HOUSE: GENERAL
Obama’s approval is down and Republicans lead on key issues in battle ground states, a recent NPR poll found.
NPR writes:
In the key battleground states that will decide control of the Senate this November, President Obama's approval numbers are lower than they are nationally—but not much lower.
That's the key finding in a new poll, conducted by Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps and Republican Whit Ayres of Resurgent Republic, that sampled likely voters for NPR.
In the 12 states with competitive Senate races this fall, only 38 percent of likely voters said they approved of the way the president is handling his job. An index of all national polls shows the president's approval rating about 4 percentage points higher nationwide.
It is significant that the president’s approval is lower in these states than across the nation, and while the article rightly points out that Romney won eight of the twelve states in 2012, we still see that Obama’s approval is down in four states that he won.
However, that’s not the most interesting aspect of this poll. What’s more interesting is whom respondents said they trusted when they were asked about specific issues.
Voters in these 12 states said they trust Republicans more than Democrats on the economy, health care, and foreign policy. Respondents trusted Democrats and Republicans equally (42 percent) on "the future of the middle class."
That’s a big deal. These are states that will decide who controls the Senate, and when it comes to the most significant election issues, people trust Republicans on three out of the four issues in question.
This poll gives Republicans another reason to feel like they can pick up six seats and take control of the Senate.
SENATE: NORTH CAROLINA
A new poll from Public Policy Polling (a Democratic leaning firm) put Sen. Kay Hagan ahead of her Republican challenger Thom Tillis by 5 percentage points.
News & Observer reports:
U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan and House Speaker Thom Tillis are still neck and neck in the U.S. Senate race, but a new poll by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released Tuesday shows Hagan leading by 5 points, her biggest advantage since September. Hagan had 39 percent while Tillis had 34 percent and Libertarian Sean Haugh had 11 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. […]
Tillis, the Republican House Speaker, had a favorability rating of 23 percent, while 45 percent of voters rated him unfavorably.
The approval ratings for Hagan, the Democratic incumbent, are low, too: 42 percent of voters approve, and 46 percent disapprove.
Hagan is getting help from Emily’s List in an ad buy that is "in the high six figures."
The ad, which features a teacher, will hit Tillis on cutting "almost $500 million from education" while protecting "tax breaks for yachts and jets." It’s an expensive ad buy in one of the most watched, and expensive, races of the 2014 cycle. Featuring a teacher and discussing education stirs an emotional response in voters, and they can be very effective attacks, but when it comes to the content of this particular attack, it’s reportedly a bit of a stretch.
According to the Washington Post, some of the claims are "taken out of context" and that the $500 million dollars the ad says Tillis cut in education spending is misconstrued.
Education budgets are complicated, but the Post concludes Emily’s LIST exaggerates "the extent and impact of reductions in state funding for education last year" and completely ignores the fact that under Tillis’ leadership the North Carolina House actually passed a bill that would increase teacher’s pay by 5 percent.
SENATE: IOWA
In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst has jumped up 11 points since the last Quinnipiac poll, making a race that analysts say "leans Democrat," seem increasingly in play.
The Des Moines Register notes:
Democratic U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley leads Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 44 percent to 40 percent in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University shows.
Ernst is closing a wide gap—Braley led with 42 percent to Ernst's 29 percent in Quinnipiac's March 13 survey.
There are many factors that play into Ernst’s rise, and her continued rise is in keeping with what we saw in the primary. She kind of snuck up, and not everyone was expecting her to be such a viable candidate. Perhaps this rise is merely indicative of Ernst’s growing popularity and increased name recognition, but Braley has made stupid gaffes in the past few weeks that may be having an impact.
Last week Braley ran an ad that many called sexist, and earlier he made comments that appeared to mock farmers.