The U.S. ambassador to NATO warned after Russia’s invasion of Georgia six years ago that President Vladimir Putin could encroach on Ukrainian territory next, according to a 2008 cable published by Wikileaks.
Putin publicly challenged Ukraine’s claim to Crimea in a speech at the Russia-NATO summit in April 2008, according to an Aug. 14, 2008 telegram signed by then-U.S. NATO ambassador Kurt Volker.
The Russian leader’s threats took on greater significance after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in early August 2008, according to the Volker memo.
"President Putin challenged Ukraine’s territorial integrity rhetorically at the Bucharest Summit," the telegram said. "Those words are now cause for greater concern as we look at Russia’s actions in Georgia."
At the summit, Putin suggested that Ukraine "was an artificial creation sewn together from territory of Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and especially Russia," according to the memo.
"Crimea was simply given to Ukraine by a decision of the Politburo of the Soviet Communist Party Central Committee," Putin reportedly said. "There haven't even been any state procedures regarding transfer of the territory, since we take a very calm and responsible approach to the problem."
Putin also issued a veiled threat against Ukraine, which was vying for NATO membership, suggesting that there would be retribution if it joined NATO.
"If we add in the NATO question and other problems, the very existence of the state could find itself under threat," Putin said, according to the memo.
The Volker telegram warned that Russian belligerence could increase if the invasion of Georgia was not met with significant consequences.
"If the Kremlin achieves all of its objectives in Georgia with few consequences and its international reputation intact—as Germany and others would have it—this may only embolden Russia to increase its bullying behavior towards Ukraine and others in the neighborhood."
Reached for comment on Russia’s invasion of Crimea last month, Volker said it was no surprise.
"We saw six years ago where Russia was headed," Volker told the Washington Free Beacon.
He said Russia was likely emboldened by the lack of long-term consequences after its invasion of Georgia.
"The 'reset' policy was an effort to give relations a fresh start, and [Russia] took advantage of that," he said.
Volker added that Russian expansionism might not stop at Crimea.
"People should not think that because they’ve annexed Crimea it’s now over. We need to be doing a lot now to deter further steps from Russia," he said.
Volker suggested taking steps through NATO, including moving additional air defense assets to the Baltic states, selling more advanced military equipment to Ukraine and imposing an arms embargo on Russia.