A new poll released this week shows Republican congressman Brian Fitzpatrick leading his Democratic opponent by 7 points among potential voters but also indicates a tight race if turnout is better for Democrats than in previous elections.
The Monmouth University poll shows 49 percent of voters saying they support Rep. Fitzpatrick while 42 percent say they support Democratic challenger Scott Wallace. Monmouth also found 53 percent of potential voters had a favorable view of the congressman while 22 percent had an unfavorable view and 25 percent had no opinion. Thirty-two percent said they had a favorable view of Wallace while 15 percent had an unfavorable view and 53 percent had no opinion.
Haley Bova, a spokesperson for the Fitzpatrick campaign, said the poll was evidence that the congressman's approach to bipartisanship resonated with voters in the southeastern Pennsylvania district.
"The poll goes on to state that 'Fitzpatrick would be a shoe-in if he was running in a political vacuum,'" she said. "This is a direct result of the fact that the Lugar Center at Georgetown University identified Brian Fitzpatrick as the number-one most bipartisan freshman congressman in the nation, which is exactly what our community wants in our representative."
Bova said the poll showed that spending by Wallace in the Democratic primary did not produce good results.
"It is remarkable that, after Scott Wallace spends $2.5 million on his primary race, that his numbers are as poor as they are," she said. "Perhaps this is due to the fact that he spent those millions viciously attacking the character of the only female candidate in the race [Rachel Reddick], who also happens to be a military veteran."
She went on to criticize Wallace for his decision to relocate from his homes in Maryland and South Africa in order to run for Congress in Pennsylvania.
"Scott Wallace magically appeared in our community just this year from his multimillion-dollar estate in South Africa in a shameless attempt to buy an election with his hundreds of millions of dollars," Bova said. "To make matters worse, the first time he’s ever voted in our district was for himself just this year. Our community will see right through Scott Wallace’s fraudulent campaign and will see for themselves that this man is dishonest, disconnected and dangerous for our community."
The Wallace campaign did not respond to a request for comment, but in a fundraising email to supporters it highlighted the results of the Monmouth poll's likely voter screens.
"A new poll confirms that this race is a statistical dead heat—Scott is running neck and neck against Brian Fitzpatrick, one of Trump's key congressional enablers," the campaign told its supporters. "With the race so close, it's going to come down to which side gets voters to turn out on Election Day."
Monmouth found that depending on whether or not Democrats turn out at a higher level than usual in a midterm election, which remains an open question, the race may be closer to a tossup with either candidate enjoying just a one-point advantage.
"The race is much tighter using two different likely voter models," Monmouth University said in a statement about their polling. "A historical midterm model gives Fitzpatrick a negligible 48 percent to 47 percent lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where President Donald Trump is unpopular gives an insignificant edge to Wallace at 48 percent to 47 percent."
Wallace, who made a splash early in the campaign by calling for a new ban on certain guns and attacking the National Rifle Association, warned his supporters that the polling could mean more money spent on ads attacking him in an effort to "steal this election."
"Our race could make the difference in taking back the House this fall, which is why this poll is only going to motivate the GOP to spend more money in negative attacks against Scott," Wallace's fundraising email said. "We can't allow special interests like the NRA or billionaires like the Koch brothers to steal this election from working people."