Political website FiveThirtyEight’s current projection of the 2016 presidential election gives Donald Trump a 56.7 percent chance of winning the White House, showing the Republican nominee securing the electoral college with at least 283 votes.
The model believes that Trump will win 45.4 percent of the popular vote, while Hillary Clinton will win 45.1 percent, and Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson will win 8.2 percent.
Johnson is projected to win zero electoral votes.
Trump would win swing states Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida. Clinton would win Colorado and Virginia.
The model, generated by Nate Silver, uses data generated by a variety of polls in all fifty states and Washington, D.C. This is the first time that FiveThirtyEight shows Trump ahead of Clinton.
Among the other projections, FiveThirtyEight believes there is a 0.5 percent chance that no candidate wins the electoral college, which would then force the selection of the next president to the House of Representatives per the Constitution. It also projects there is a 7.7 percent chance that at least one crucial state is forced to do a recount.