The likelihood that the United States will know when a nation obtains nuclear weapon capability is very low, according to a new report from the Pentagon.
The report says that given the new pathways to proliferation, the United States is severely limited in its intelligence capability to determine whether a nation like Iran has obtained a nuclear bomb.
Bret Stephens, foreign affairs columnist for the Wall Street Journal, pointed out that the report directly contradicts what Vice President Joe Biden claimed in his debate with candidate Paul Ryan in 2012.
"[Biden] said ‘For sure’ we would have ample warning before the Iranians decide to take their nuclear industrial capabilities and sprint toward a bomb," Stephens said. "This report tells us we probably wouldn’t have a clue."
Stephens noted the lack of warning the U.S. had when both Pakistan and India obtained their respective nuclear weapons in previous decades.
With India "we had no warning whatsoever," Stephens said. "And it’s not a closed society like a North Korea or Iran. We like to imagine we have perfect intelligence, but that is just not true."