The Department of Commerce is forecasting an increase in tourism to the United States this year, reversing a trend the media has falsely dubbed the "Trump Slump."
The National Travel and Tourism Office said economic data projects tourism will increase to 78 million international visitors in 2018, a return to 2015 levels. Tourism to the United States began declining in 2016, costing billions in travel revenue.
The department issued the travel forecast on Friday. The forecast considers economic, demographic, social factors, historical visitation trends, input from department staff abroad, and other sources, the department said.
"The forecast is based on a country-level, bottom-up consensus approach by a four-member forecast team," the department said. "Each team member develops independent country-level estimates for the top 20 visitor origin markets based on numerous quantitative data and qualitative information. These 20 markets account for 88 percent of total international arrivals."
The tourism office foresees an increase in tourism through 2022, after a decline of nearly 2 million international visitors in 2016, and an additional decrease of 800,000 visitors in 2017. The United States will see 80.9 million international tourists in 2019; 83.4 million in 2020; 86.2 million in 2021; and 89 million in 2022, according to the projection.
The data shows reasons for the recent decline in U.S. tourism are largely immaterial to the election of Donald Trump. For instance, America saw a 22 percent drop in 2017 from Venezuela, a country in crisis resulting from socialist policies.
Media outlets have called the decline in tourism the "Trump Slump," although it began well before the president was elected. Reasons for the decline have been attributed to a strengthening dollar, increased competition, and economic growth, making the United States a more expensive tourist destination.