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Ellison's Must Read of the Day

Ellison must read
June 25, 2014

My must read of the day is "Big Jump in Turnout Is Key in Thad Cochran’s Victory," in the New York Times:

Overall turnout has surpassed that from the initial primary by 14 percent, or 45,465 votes, so far. In that contest, Mr. McDaniel edged Mr. Cochran but fell short of the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff. Turnout increased by 15.9 percent in the counties that reported 100 percent of their precincts. […]

The Cochran campaign’s efforts to appeal to Democratic-leaning black voters appeared to succeed. The increase in turnout was largest in heavily black counties, particularly in the Mississippi Delta. Over all, turnout rose by 43 percent in the counties where black voters make up more than 65 percent of eligible voters. Turnout increased by 92 percent in Jefferson County, where African-Americans represent 85 percent of the population, the largest share of any county in the country. […]

In terms of total votes, however, the preponderance of the increase in turnout most likely came from white voters. Turnout increased by 15.5 percent in the counties where black voters make up less than 20 percent of eligible voters, about the same as the 15.7 percent increase in turnout statewide.

McDaniel supporters (and it seems McDaniel as well) are going to challenge this and likely question the legality of Cochran’s efforts to expand the electorate.

But if we put a pin in that discussion and just look at this race in terms of numbers, it's really amazing.

Turnout was up over fifteen percent. In the last 34 years there have been 40 Senate run offs and turnout has declined in 37 of them. Regardless of your opinion on the result, at the most basic, numerical position, turnout was impressive.