In spite of Mel Kiper's click bait, there was never any validity to the notion of Manziel being selected first overall. Since Manziel is waiting until next week to throw for scouts, Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater and UCF’s Blake Bortles have a chance to seize the reins and join Jadeveon Clowney as the frontrunner for Bill O’Brien’s first pick as Texans head coach.
As unlucky inhabitants of the American Airlines Conference, each lack the year-long PR campaign that comes with playing in a flagship conference. However, they both can boast a BCS game victory, something Johnny Football cannot.
After torching Florida in the 2013 Sugar Bowl, Bridgewater was poised to share the honors of "top QB prospect" with Manziel. Thanks to a charmed 2013 season that was capped off with an upset over an explosive Baylor team and the kind of obsessive publicity that comes with his girlfriend, Bortles inserted himself in the conversation.
Bortles beat Bridgewater in their head-to-head meeting last October—and now, Bortles may have beaten him on the draft board. Scouts were already souring on Bridgewater after the combine. When Bridgewater followed that up with a "meh" pro day, scouts and media heads piled on, falling over themselves to label it "worst workout evar."
Bortles, meanwhile, delivered what was called a spectacular performance in the eyes of the NFL’s news drivers: ESPN talking heads.
well... RT @MagicJones15: McShay said after 4 throws Bortles is now higher on his board than Bridgewater. "He looks the part" HE SAID THAT
— Bomani Jones (@bomani_jones) March 19, 2014
Much like in running for office, getting drafted as a quarterback is as much as timing as it is skill. You're reminded of quarterbacks who lost on out timing (Matt Leinart) and those who made a lot of money from it (RGIII). The MMQB has a fabulous breakdown outlining how Bortles’s mechanics erode into turnovers when under pressure.
Bortles’ mechanical problems, both with his delivery and footwork, are alarming because they seem to consistently break down when he’s under the most pressure. And most quarterbacks, no matter how well they are taught, revert back to their worst habits in the most stressful times.
Those are all fixable defects and Greg Bedard argues Bortles, with a little improvement, would have been a lock to go first overall next year.
In a perfect world, Bortles would have stayed in school one more season, fixed the potentially ruinous weaknesses in his game, been the top pick in the 2015 draft and immediately started on the first day for his new franchise.
When we factor in timing, Bortles is coming off a fantastic season and going into a deep draft where teams like Houston, Atlanta, and St. Louis are drafting high while being only a quarterback away from returning to prominence. His timing couldn't be better.
Bortles is following in the footsteps of his girlfriend's new BFF's boyfriend, Matt Stafford. In 2009, the Detroit QB could have used an extra season in college to fine tune his game but jumped to the pros in order to beat the oncoming labor deal, which was going to reduce rookie salaries.
It's all about timing.