A new poll released Sundayon the Senate race in Arkansas shows Republican Rep. Tom Cotton only 1 point behind incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor.
Pryor leads the poll at 42 percent while Cotton comes in at 41 percent with 17 percent of voters undecided, according to Talk Business Arkansas.
According to the poll's analysis of the upcoming election:
Both sides in this race have something to cheer and something to be concerned about from this early insight.
For Cotton, he is already competitive with Pryor and has a lot of momentum due to anti-Obama and pro-GOP trends we’ve seen for the last two election cycles in Arkansas. Those headwinds appear to still be prevalent.
However, Cotton is not running away among independent voters in this poll despite, with rare exceptions (Gov. Mike Beebe, for instance), Republicans enjoying 2-to-1, 3-to-1 or greater margins among independent voters in recent cycles.
This is good news for Pryor, whose brand will clearly be competitive for this bloc of crucial voters. As Dr. Barth has noted, Pryor’s ties to national Democrats, which will be a centerpiece of the Cotton campaign, and his poor job approval have not deterred voters from considering him for another term.