A fragile ceasefire has gone into effect in war-torn Ukraine, after—for the second time in less than six months—a broad but vague and nonbinding agreement was reached in Minsk on Feb. 12.
Prodded by French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and pro-Russian rebels fighting in Ukraine returned to the negotiating table against the backdrop of intensified fighting in the troubled European nation. After 16 hours of discussion, the negotiators agreed on a 13-step plan for Ukraine.
A similar agreement was inked last September in the Belarus capital. Merkel said the new deal offered a "glimmer of hope," but the principal parties did not personally sign the agreement, leaving that to subordinates.
The key terms of the agreement, according to reports, include:
- An "immediate and comprehensive" cease fire beginning at midnight local time on Feb. 15
- All heavy weapons are to be removed from eastern Ukraine no later than two weeks after the start of the cease fire
- All prisoners are to be released and amnesty to be given to all fighters
- All foreign troops and their weapons are to be withdrawn
- Ukraine will lift restrictions in rebel areas
- Constitutional reform will be implemented by the Ukrainian government by the end of 2015 providing for greater decentralization of control in eastern Ukraine
- Ukraine may regain control of its border with Russia but not until the end of 2015.
One major practical effect of the agreement is that Russian military forces and equipment will be able to cross into Ukraine without any impediment through at least the end of the year.
In recent months Russia has been suffering the disruptive consequences of punitive U.S. and European Union sanctions. The ruble has lost significant value and trade with the West in such areas as food and wine has declined precipitously. Tens of millions of dollars in capital have fled Russia and the international investment climate is frozen, at least with Western partners—all factors that may have contributed to Putin’s willingness to negotiate a second ceasefire agreement.
Nonetheless, it is reasonable to conclude that Russia emerged victorious on multiple levels from the terms of Minsk II. U.S. officials have been debating whether to commit to supplying lethal military equipment to the Ukrainian military. Those plans will now certainly remain on hold.
On the ground, Putin has largely achieved what may be his short-term strategy to freeze the situation. Under the agreement, Russia loses no territory and has ample opportunity to resume its active support of the rebel forces at any time.
Perhaps most importantly, the accord moves Russia closer to establishing Moscow-backed ‘self-rule’ in Donetsk and Luhansk. The agreement is ambiguous about Ukraine taking constitutional action to achieve "decentralization" of authority for eastern Ukraine but what that will mean in practice is never fully codified.
What also remains unclear is the region’s future. Because Ukraine is not a NATO member the odds of a strong Western response were always limited, a reality Obama acknowledged months ago. Knowing the limits of possible Western responses is a significant strategic advantage for Russia that Putin has been eager to exploit. The Baltic states—Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia—are all NATO members, and view events since last March with great concern.
Russian aggression against any of those states would be a severe test for the alliance’s collective security approach encapsulated in Article V of the 1949 NATO Treaty that member states may or may not be prepared to honor.
The New York Times reports that 5400 civilians have been killed since the start of fighting in Ukraine last spring, and intense fighting continued in the hours after the accord had been settled.
Ukraine is a broken nation, economically as well as politically. Crimea is firmly under Russian control, and the Kremlin is increasing its authority in southeast Ukraine daily. While Ukraine’s political situation worsens, its economy is mired in corruption and heavy debt. It will likely receive more financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, but the positive effect such funds will have is unclear. It is a corrupt, fractured country facing more chaos as further parts of its territory come under Moscow’s control.