2016: A Most Dangerous Summer

In this image released by the U.S. Navy, a Russian SU-24 jet makes a close-range and low altitude pass near the USS Donald Cook on Tuesday, April 12, 2016, in the Baltic Sea. / U.S. Navy via AP

In late June, citizens of the UK will vote on whether to leave the European Union, and may well make the historic decision to do so. During the second half of July, the two major U.S. political parties will have conventions at which they nominate their presidential candidates. At the first one of these, the current frontrunner has all but threatened mob violence if he is denied his party’s nod, and events in Cleveland are very likely to occupy the nation’s attention. Meanwhile, as the weather improves throughout the spring in the eastern Mediterranean, and considering that there is no end in sight to the violence in Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan, the flow of refugees from the Middle East and Central Asia into Europe will pick up again, further destabilizing the member nations of the NATO alliance.