Obama’s Forecast Failures


This morning on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter attacked Mitt Romney’s pledge to create 12 million new jobs. Cutter argued that 12 million new jobs is in line with current economic forecasts, therefore Romney’s pledge was nothing special and Obama should not bother making the same pledge. History suggests that Obama may be passing on the pledge due to his track record of failing to meet, let alone surpass, economic forecasts.

In January 2009, before Obama took office, his future economists Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein released a report projecting the effects of the incoming President’s proposed stimulus package. In the forecast, Romer and Bernstein predicted that the stimulus would prevent the unemployment rate from ever hitting 8 percent. If Congress didn’t adopt the President’s plan, the unemployment rate would rise to 9 percent but fall back down to 6 percent by the third quarter of 2012, they argued. In reality, Obama’s massive stimulus package was adopted and the unemployment rate rose to 10 percent in October 2009 and currently sits at 8.1 percent—a number achieved only because millions have given up looking for work altogether.

In June 2010, the Obama Administration claimed the “Summer of Economic Recovery” had arrived. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner welcomed Americans to the recovery in August 2010. But as of summer 2012, “Americans [were] still waiting for the recovery,” according to Sen. John Thune (R., S.D.). The economy has yet to recover. Unemployment remains above 8 percent and the economy consistently adds less than 100,000 jobs per month.

In July 2012, Obama was forced to downgrade his GDP projections for 2012 and 2013. Originally, the White House projected 4.6 percent growth for 2012 and 4.7 percent growth for 2013. The updated forecast predicts 4.3 percent growth in both 2012 and 2013.

Cutter appeared on MSNBC wearing a $1,050 leather jacket. She has previously worn the expensive designer leather jacket while arguing for tax hikes on the wealthy.