Federal Reserve Projects Unemployment Will Remain Above 8 Percent Through Election

Jim Pethokoukis / AEI

Jim Pethokoukis / AEI


The Federal Reserve cut its 2012 growth forecasts Wednesday, projecting–at best–2.4 percent growth and 8.0 unemployment. The Fed’s worst case scenario, however, sets growth at 1.9 percent and unemployment at 8.2 percent.

In April, the Fed had projected 2.4 to 2.9 percent real GDP growth, and an unemployment rate of 7.8 to 8.2 percent.

American Enterprise Institute’s Jim Pethokoukis noted last week that Wall Street had slashed its growth forecast:

And after a weak retail sales number today, Wall Street economists have been slashing their second-quarter GDP forecasts:

– Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 1.6% from 1.8%.

– Bank of America/Merrill Lynch cut its forecast to 1.9% from 2.4%.

– Macroeconomic Advisers cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.

– CIBC World Markets cut its forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%.

– Barclays Capital cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.1%

– Action Economics cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.