Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century got out ahead of the "major announcement" Florida governor Rick Scott (R.) has scheduled for next week with a memo arguing that Scott running for Senate would "go down as one of the biggest mistakes in Florida political history."
Scott is expected to launch his campaign to unseat incumbent senator Bill Nelson (D., Fla.) during the April 9 announcement, a move Democrats scrambled to prepare for last year when Nelson told party leaders during an emergency meeting they needed to double resources in Florida to hold off Scott, a two-term governor who has used his own wealth to help fund prior campaigns.
The party's concerns about Scott's entrance in the race appear to have vanished, according to a Wednesday memo by the David Brock-led group which warns of a "Democratic headwind the likes of which [Scott] has never encountered."
The memo, titled "Why Rick Scott Can't Win in 2018" and published in full by the Tampa Bay Times, argues that the political climate is not the same as it was for his wins in 2010 and 2014 when he was able to run on an "anti-Obama message." It also says Scott is a "historically weak vote-getter."
"Rick Scott's decision to run for U.S. Senate will go down as one of the biggest mistakes in recent Florida political history," the memo concludes. "Scott's two razor-thin wins were dependent on a base-first strategy that only works in Republican wave years."
"It is too early to tell if the Democratic wave in 2018 will be a surge or a tsunami, but one thing is clear: it will be too strong for Rick Scott to overcome," it says.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that will likely compete with American Bridge on the ground in Florida, said it viewed the memo as a last-ditch effort to dissuade Scott from running.
"If Bill Nelson and his liberal allies truly don't believe that Rick Scott can win, then why are they releasing memos meant to discourage him from running?" said spokesman Chris Pack. "This is a desperate attempt to distract from Bill Nelson's do-nothing record since first being elected to office 46 years ago."
Republican officials similarly laughed off the American Bridge memo, calling it "laughable" to consider Nelson a "shoo-in" to keep his seat.
"It's laughable American Bridge thinks career politician Bill Nelson, with only half of the state recognizing his name despite nearly two decades in office, is a shoo-in to keep a Senate seat," said the Republican National Committee's Florida spokesman Taryn Fenske.
Fenske further labeled Nelson a "do-nothing Democrat" and "one of America's least effective and most vulnerable Democrats."
Another Republican operative expressed optimism equal to what was exhibited in the American Bridge memo, saying "Nelson is toast" once Scott enters the race and calling the memo "embarrassing."
"Democrats are embarrassing themselves with their meltdown over the idea of Gov. Scott running against Bill Nelson," said the senior Republican operative, who also predicted the race could soak up resources needed elsewhere on the map.
"It doesn't take a rocket scientist or astronaut to see that Nelson is toast and this race just became a map changing, money resource draining nightmare for national Democrats," the operative said.
The Florida race is currently ranked as a "toss-up" by University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Early polling shows a neck-and-neck race between Nelson and Scott.