The odds of a recession occurring in 2017 have doubled—rising to 21 percent, according to a survey of Wall Street Journal economists.
Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been volatile, falling about 13 percent since its peak last May. Investors have sought less risky assets with gold climbing 15 percent since the beginning of this year, trading at about $1,200 an ounce.
“The markets’ woes reflect investor fears that global economic growth is slowing sharply and that the U.S. will be unable to stay healthy when so many foreign economies are lagging,” the article states. “Economists have continued slashing their estimates for economic growth in 2016. A year ago, they estimated growth would rebound to 2.8% in 2016. Those estimates have now fallen to 2.3%.”
In addition to GDP, the number of projected jobs added to the economy in the coming year has declined by a quarter million from the 2.4 million that were forecasted.
“Forecasters were similarly worried about the economy’s health in 2011 and 2012, the last time their recession odds rose this high,” states WSJ. “In both years, U.S. stock prices fell sharply, with 2011’s drop more severe than the one seen today.”