For as much guff as SI’s Peter King gets for his ruminations on airport coffee, the NFL season starts when the man files his first training camp dispatch. Hidden amongst the faux optimism for a squad that’ll likely go 5-11 is King’s inaugural Fine 15 list, a full 45 days before people like myself get to learn how wrong we are.
1. Seattle. I like the approach of the coach and the defense ("We’re going to win again, and we don’t care who knows it") and, from being with Russell Wilson a bit this offseason, I know his approach. He’ll enter camp this week thinking he’s got to beat out Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job.
Seattle's biggest concern is keeping Russell Wilson out of the ER so he can cash in on the massive payday coming for him and Pete Carroll.
2. Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has his weapons and his health, and the schedule’s friendly post-Sept. 4, with the Bills, Jets, Dolphins out of conference on the docket.
I’m not as high on the Packers as I have been years past because they’re the bizarro Seahawks, in that they're on the wrong end of injuries and cap flexibility. Green Bay’s sore spot is their running back stable, which is ironic since they were directly responsible for Seattle’s ascendance by staying out of the Marshawn Lynch trade in 2010. It's also alarming that Rodgers' best wide receiver doesn't play football.
3. San Francisco. If I trusted Colin Kaepernick as much as I trust Russell Wilson, 1 and 3 would be reversed.
San Francisco is lucky they're this high. If Kaep is as transcendent in the first 16 games of the season as he is in the last three, the Niners will be on the hook for over $120 million with little wiggle room to get a man who can catch a ball without pissing off Richard Sherman. The Niners are also counting on defensive stalwart Navarro Bowman to get over his gruesome knee injury. San Fran is so hard up for money, Jim Harbaugh may have to buy his pants at Walmart out of necessity, rather than for their style.
4. New Orleans. The rich get obscenely richer, and Brandin Cooks wins offensive rookie of the year, and the defense stays stout. Need to survive the schedule: three of the first away, three of the last five away.
5. Indianapolis. I’m buying the Luck hype, plus he gets back one of the great young tight ends in the game—Dwayne Allen. Colts will score loads of points, and could go 6-0 in the AFC South.
It's hard to believe King forgot all the different, improbable ways Indy won their games last year. They made it look hard to win a rancid division, which is something you can't count on them to replicate the following year.
6. Denver. Having a hard time getting That Game out of my head.
Expect to see this face this year. A lot.
7. New England. Good chance to start 7-0 before a pretty rough six-game stretch (Chicago, Denver, at Indy, Detroit, at Green Bay, at San Diego).
8. Philadelphia. Chip Kelly, with a year to study. That’s dangerous. Also think Nick Foles wasn’t a fluke.
9. Chicago. Marc Trestman’s acing chemistry class. He’s got Jay Cutler kumbaya-ing in the cafeteria at Halas Hall. And who’s covering those Olajuwon-sized receivers and tight end Martellus Bennett?
The Bears owe a quarterback who hasn't made the Pro Bowl since Obama was elected president just under $50 million over the next three seasons. You can pay Kristin Cavallari a lot cheaper than $50 mil to have her come to your games. The only reasonable explanation is Jay Cutler having dirty pics of Chicago's front office.
10. St. Louis. Might not show up in the record, but the Rams are going to be hell to play, and they’ll be a playoff team if Sam Bradford plays the way he was drafted to play.
11. Arizona. Might not show up in the record, but the Cards are going to be hell to play, and they’ll be a playoff team if Carson Palmer plays close to the way he played in his prime.
12. San Diego. So impressed with the jobs Tom Telesco and Mike McCoy did last year. That’s a tough D to play, and an explosive offense.
I don’t know what D Peter is talking about. He must not be talking about the worst secondary in football last year.
13. Cincinnati. Deep and talented, but let me be the 4,672nd guru to say in the last six months, "It all comes down to Dalton."
Tell us again Bengal fans that Andy Dalton can lead you to the second round of the playoffs.
14. Carolina. I’d feel better about the Panthers’ chances if the receivers all weren’t told to come to training camp this week wearing name tags.
15. Baltimore. A few too many questions on defense for my liking, particularly rushing the passer.