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MSNBC Panel Bullish on Democrats' Chances in 2014

July 28, 2014

A crucial New York Times analysis predicts that Republicans now have a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate next year, with the most likely outcome being a 51-49 seat split following the midterm elections in November. Republican candidates have slight leads in swing states such as Michigan, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina, and are within striking distance in Alaska and Colorado.

MSNBC’s all-star panel of political experts, however, is far more optimistic about the Democratic Party’s chances. On "The Daily Rundown" this morning, host Chuck Todd discussed the midterm elections with the Washington Post’s Dan Balz, Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report, and Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report. And while they didn't really make any predictions, they all seemed to think that Democrats were fairly well positioned compared to their GOP opponents.

Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner is "one of the better" GOP candidates, Balz said, but incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D) has a "slight edge" in the race. "I would rather be Udall," Walter said.

Michigan: "I'd rather be [Democratic] Congressman Gary Peters," Gonzales said. No one disagreed.

Iowa: Everyone conceded that the race between Congressman Bruce Braley (D) and Republican Joni Ernst was too close to call. "Democrats are about to unload on Joni Ernst, we'll see how she holds up," Gonzales said.

Arkansas: Most agreed that Republican Congressman Tom Cotton is well positioned to oust incumbent Mark Pryor, but Balz warned that a strong Democratic ground game could make a difference.

Alaska: "I think I'd rather be [incumbent Mark] Begich at this point," Todd said. A third party candidate could hurt Republicans.

North Carolina: Another close race, but Balz argued that Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan "is in a slightly better position."

Louisiana: No real assessments on the race apart from noting that Republican challenger Bill Cassidy seems like "just a stand-in right now for a generic Republican" in his race to unseat Senator Mary Landrieu.

Georgia: Democrat Michelle Nunn was a "possible winning candidate, but I think that state is so tough for Democrats," Balz said.

Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) would be "dead in the water" absent a deeply unpopular Democratic president, Todd suggested. "I think this one obviously goes down to election night," Balz said.

Kansas: Todd said that Kansas, a state that voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by a 60-38 percent margin, could be a "weird wild card" if incumbent Senator Pat Roberts (R) loses his primary race against President Obama's cousin, Milton Wolf.