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Ellison's Must Read of the Day

Ellison must read
September 2, 2014

My must read of the day is "Halfway House: GOP falling short in midterms," in Politico:

POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen top strategists from both parties about their outlook for the House in the midterms, and their assessment was nearly unanimous: Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal. The conversations covered everything from advertising strategies to fundraising to polling. [...]

Brian Walsh, a former NRCC political director who heads up Congressional Leadership Fund, declined to say how much money the organization would spend but acknowledged that fundraising had become a serious concern for the GOP.

"The 2014 race for the House is shaping up to be a fight between Democrat money and a Republican environment," he said. "The battlefield, solid candidates and a strong political environment have the makings for what could be a very good year for House Republicans, but the current cash deficit is substantial and impacts our ability to maximize the environment and win seats for future cycles. We'd always rather have a wind at our backs than a cash advantage, but this deficit is a real problem."

Picking up five or six seats is just half of the goal that was publicly discussed by some party leaders, and a net gain of six seats wouldn't fit the mold of the the past sixty-four years in which "the party out of the White House during the sixth year of a presidency has gained an average of 25 seats," as Politico notes.

It certainly would not match the gains of 2010.

In the 2010 election cycle Republicans picked up 63 seats, giving the party their largest majority since 1946. Currently, they hold 233 seats, and that is still more than anytime between the 81st Congress and the 111th Congress. From the late 1950s until the mid-90s Republican’s didn’t even hold 200 seats. Should they really care if they don’t pick up double digits this time?

Far more Democrats are vulnerable than Republicans this cycle, but Republicans seem to face a legitimate fundraising problem. A lot of that has to do with the Senate races that are, appropriately, receiving more attention.

It would be a mistake to be complacent in House races, but a major wave is not a necessity for the party. Republicans will have a solid majority if they gain five or six seats, and it would also be a mistake to harp on picking up eleven seats instead of six.

If Republicans and their donors know they can hold on to the House, their time and money is better spent on the Senate races where they have a real chance of gaining the six seats necessary for a majority.

Published under: 2014 Election