My must read of the day is "11 questions that will decide the Senate," in Politico:
Three weeks out from Election Day, control of the Senate remains as uncertain and unsettled as it’s been all year — with Republicans gaining in states like Alaska and Colorado but suddenly scrambling to hang on in conservative strongholds Kansas and South Dakota.
The GOP needs to pick up six seats, and the party is on defense in Kansas, Georgia and Kentucky. Lose any of the three and the path to the majority would become significantly more difficult. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has consistently led in the Bluegrass State, but a poll for the state’s biggest newspapers released last week showed him trailing by 2 points — a reminder that McConnell has yet to put it away.
Control of the Senate is still a toss up, and while some places like the Washington Post’s "Election Lab" are giving Republicans a very optimistic chance of controlling the Senate (at the moment they’re predicting that there’s a 94 percent chance they take control), it seems far more realistic to say that the GOP has the edge, but just slightly.
Nate Silver’s blog "FiveThirtyEight" currently gives Republicans a 57.9 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate, and Democrats a 42.1 percent chance of hanging on to control.
I would say there are about seven seats still in play: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Kansas.
Republicans will pick up seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. North Carolina, was supposed to be one of the easier pick ups for Republicans, but after months of great polling for Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, that state could stay blue. Republicans can still pick up their net gain of six seats and get the 51 seats for a majority as long as they keep Kansas and pick up places such as Alaska, Arkansas, and Iowa—which seems more likely than not.
The three states Politico suggests are the Republicans’ biggest liability in turning blue are Kansas, Kentucky, and Georgia. The biggest worry for Republicans seems to be Kansas, in part because no one was expecting it to be in play—the other two I think will probably stay red.
In Kentucky, tonight is the first official debate between Grimes and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and it is going to be important. Grimes is not a candidate to underestimate; however, after making a few easily avoidable gaffes, such as being unable to answer whether she voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012, Grimes seems unlikely to eke out a win in Kentucky. McConnell is a seasoned politician—Grimes' gaffes show that she’s not. I wouldn’t be surprised if she makes a mistake in tonight’s debate (I guarantee McConnell is going to bring up her refusal to say if she voted for Obama).
Not to mention, in Kentucky, Obama’s job approval is abysmal. The most recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that 66 percent of Kentuckians disapprove of the job Obama is doing.
Michelle Nunn is similarly a strong candidate in Georgia, but Obama’s approval ratings are not great (58 percent disapprove) and the state is still rather red. In 2012, the state went for Romney by eight points.
This Politico article gives a good "cheat sheet" on questions that matter for a host of races, but when it comes to what states to watch for control of the Senate—I’m inclined to think Charlie Cook has the best analysis. He wrote about it in the National Journal last week.
According to Cook, the races that will probably determine control of the Senate are Iowa, Colorado, and Alaska—with the very real possibility that Republicans lose Kansas and need to turn a purple seat.
Iowa, in my mind, is the place where Republicans are most likely to do that. Georgia and Kentucky don’t look like they’ll switch—at least right now. There’s just too much leaning against the Democrats to make turning them seem realistic.