My must read of the day is "Democrats Are (Slowly) Learning to Love Obamacare," in the Atlantic:
Democrats won't be mounting a big political offensive around the Affordable Care Act any time soon, but they're beginning to test the pro-Obamacare waters.
Heading into the 2014 midterms, Republicans continue to hold a clear advantage in the politics of Obamacare. And even if the tide does ultimately shift for the law, it almost certainly won't happen by November. Still, there are signs that Democrats are slowly becoming more confident talking about the health-care law, or at least parts of it.
"There is a palpable comfort that didn't exist as recently as six months ago," said Chris Jennings, who worked on healthcare strategy in both the Clinton and Obama administrations. "I think we're in transition, moving from a defense to an achievement strategy." […]
Democratic strategists cautioned against reading too much into the trickle of pro-Obamacare messaging some candidates have embraced. The law is finding a place in Democrats' campaigns often as a byproduct of some other political need, they said, not because of a broader strategic shift within the party.
Embracing parts of the law such as the Medicaid expansion (Kay Hagan in North Carolina) or that insurers can’t deny coverage for those with pre-existing conditions (Mark Pryor in Arkansas) isn’t embracingObamacare, and it’s certainly not proof Democrats are learning to "love" it. Some tried to make this same argument in April when they pointed to a pro-Begich ad as evidence that the tide was changing.
It was and still is wishful thinking.
Support like this is kind of an obligatory, ‘come on guys, it isn’t that bad,’ which is something incumbents have to say when they voted in favor of the legislation.
For every bit of good news supporters find, opponents can easily find bad news. Obamacare news is like a pendulum. It never stays in the middle, never stays on one side, and more often than not it seems to lean a little bit further, and be a bit stronger, when it’s on the side of bad news.
The most recent CBO report is an obvious example.
The report predicts less Medicare spending in the years to come, and reduction in the deficit, which would partially be because of the healthcare law. However, the same report says certain aspects of the law will reduce the labor force, and subsidies will have the largest impact on "reduc[ing] the incentive for some people to work as much as they would without the subsidies."
The majority of Americans dislike the healthcare law, and that’s been relatively consistent since the law was passed, but they don’t want the whole thing repealed either. Republicans will run into a problem if they don’t actually come up with a plan to tout as a replacement, but the Affordable Care Act is not going to be the Democrats' path to victory in November.
Reports have already shown premiums rising, and they’re expected to continue rising on average 7.5 percent, but of course it will vary by state. A recent Rasmussen poll found that people who say the law is "forcing them to change their insurance" is at it’s highest level, though it hasn’t impacted their views on favorability—on the whole, they either liked or didn’t like it beforehand.
That consistency is actually part of the biggest problem when it comes to Obamacare and the midterms.
Voters who dislike the law are far more enthusiastic than those who approve of it. There’s a major enthusiasm gap between the groups, and enthusiasm is what gets people to show up and vote. Midterms already have lower turnout than general elections, and the voter demographic tends to favor Republicans—add in the fact that Republicans believe the law is a big problem and are more passionately against it than supporters are for it, and Democrats still have a law that will be liability in the most important red states.