My must read of the day is "Spurned by Obama on Immigration, Will Latino Voters Stay Home?" in the National Journal:
The question this election cycle— particularly for Democrats in tough races, such as Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado—is how many other Latino voters feel the same way, and whether the intense get-out-the-vote efforts of Democratic campaigns and outside groups can convince them otherwise.
Many Latinos feel that four Democratic Senate candidates in close races—in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina—have chosen reelection over Latino interests. They feel Obama has done the same as his vulnerable colleagues, delaying executive action that could defer the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants.
There’s been talk about this idea that Latino voters are "souring" on President Obama and Democrats because he didn’t follow through on executive action, despite promises to do so by the end of the summer. Republicans would love for that to be true, but I'm not convinced it is.
Are Latino voters frustrated with the president and Democrats for broken promises of immigration reform? Yes, without a doubt.
Are Latino voters taking Democrats to task and not voting in the midterms because of it? I doubt it.
For starters, the competitive Senate races are not states with high Latino populations. Latinos make up around 17 percent of the U.S. population, and of the competitive Senate races this cycle, the Los Angeles Times recently noted, Colorado is the only state that comes close to the national average with 14 percent, and "the competitive state with the second-highest Latino share is Kansas," where they make up 6 percent of the population.
Simply because of their numbers Latinos aren’t going to be a major force in races other than Colorado.
Additionally, Latinos tend to turnout at lower rates than white and black voters in midterm elections. Latinos also tend to be a younger demographic. According to Pew Research, "33 [percent] of Hispanic eligible voters are ages 18 to 29." Only 18 percent of eligible white voters are in that age group. Of eligible black voters 25 percent are 18 to 29 and among Asians they make up 21 percent.
Latinos have higher percentages of young eligible voters than any other race, and as we know, young people, regardless of their race, have lower turnout—and it is especially low in non-presidential years.
Perhaps Latinos may be turning away from Democrats, but we're not going to be able to tell based on this midterm election. There’s a really good chance Latinos aren’t turning out or are not as enthusiastic as other voters because they tend to be young.