My must read of the day is "House Dems fret debilitating losses," in Politico:
The political environment continues to deteriorate for House Democrats ahead of a midterm election that’s certain to diminish their ranks.
With President Barack Obama’s unpopularity hindering their candidates and Republican cash flooding into races across the country, Democrats are increasingly worried that the election will push them deep into the minority and diminish their hopes of winning back the majority in 2016 or beyond.
Looking to contain the damage, Democrats are pumping money into liberal congressional districts that were long thought to be safely in their column. Over the last several days, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has directed resources to maintain seats in Hawaii and Nevada, both of which broke sharply for the president in 2012 — an indication of just how much the terrain has shifted against the party over the past two years.
If Democrats were to take control of the House this cycle they would need to pick up 17 seats and not lose any of the ones they currently have. That, despite post 2012-declarations from the president, was never going to happen. We have a hyper-partisan electorate, very few congressional districts are purple, and picking up 17 seats would have been a monumental feat. What Democrats needed to worry about, and are rightly worrying about now, is losing more seats.
If Republicans pick up more seats, as most election analysts suspect they will, they have a great cushion going into 2016.
2016 is an election year that will likely favor Democrats. Republicans will be defending more seats in the Senate, and Democratic voters have significantly stronger turnout in presidential years than they do in midterms. If they have someone on the ticket like Hillary Clinton, who enthuses voters, they’ll be well positioned going into the election. What Republicans want is to gain as many extra seats in the House so they can potentially lose some races, but still maintain control of the lower chamber.
They seem to be well on their way to doing just that, and Democrats are should be concerned.
What happens in the House means little for this cycle. Republicans will keep control of it. It matters in 2016. Democrats know that, and that’s exactly why they’re throwing money at races right now.