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Ellison’s Election Tip Sheet

News from Louisiana, North Carolina, and Georgia

Ellison Barber election tip sheet
May 9, 2014

SENATE: LOUISANA

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D., La.) is at a new low, according to a poll released Thursday.

Bayou Buzz reports:

According to the SMOR poll, based on a survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters conducted April 28-30, 2014, . Senator Mary Landrieu continues to drop, with her positive rating now hitting an all-time low of 39 percent and her negative numbers skyrocketing to 58 percent.

The results also reflect a gap between "likely voters and "voters". According to Pinsonat, SMOR used "likely voter" criteria because it was focusing upon an actual upcoming election, rather than a poll showing general popularity. Likely voters, are considered habitual voters, thus, are likely to vote this fall. […]

Senator Landrieu’s job performance rating continues to deteriorate. Her positive ratings have dropped to an all-time low of 39 percent in this current poll. Her negative ratings have increased by 30 percentage points in a little over a year and a half (from 28 percent in September 2012 to 58 percent in this current poll).

This poll was conducted just before Landrieu’s latest efforts on the Keystone Pipeline stalled, as talks surrounding it failed.

Landrieu introduced a bill along with Sen. John Hoeven (R., N.D.) to "immediately greenlight" the pipeline. Landrieu wanted the bill to be voted on as stand-alone legislation. Republicans wanted it to be an amendment to the energy efficiency bill. Republican’s wanted a vote on it with a simple majority. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., N.V.) wouldn’t let Republicans add amendments to the energy efficiency bill, and back and forth the debate went.

According to a New York Times reporter, at one point Landrieu said she had 60 votes.

Why these negotiations have fallen apart is irrelevant when it comes to discussing Landrieu and her campaign.

Landrieu’s campaign, thus far, has focused on her role as the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and, consequently, the power it holds for her state. The failing of this deal makes her look incapable of the very thing she has told Louisianans make her worthy of their vote—and this is the second time she’s been unable to deliver on the project.

In April, she set a "firm deadline" for the White House to make a decision on the project. Barely a week after that letter, the administration announced another delay.

Construction of the pipeline matters greatly in her energy producing state, and Landrieu seems increasingly incapable of making it happen. It’s highly doubtful this week improved the falling ratings of her job performance.

SENATE: NORTH CAROLINA

On Tuesday, Thom Tillis secured the GOP nomination in the Senate race against Sen. Kay Hagan (D., N.C.).

Before Tillis secured the nomination, Hagan began running radio ads seemingly in an effort to help his opponents.

That was likely done because her campaign saw Tillis as the more formidable challenger and they would have preferred to go against someone else in the field—or they hoped to keep Tillis from getting the 40 percent necessary in North Carolina to avoid a runoff. It was probably a little of both.

I said it earlier this week, but Hagan was the real loser on Tuesday. She would have significantly benefited from a runoff, which would have been costly and provided two-and-a-half additional months of GOP candidates attacking each other.

It didn’t happen that way, and it seems Hagan may be ready to embrace Obamacare or at least use the Republican-led state’s failure to accept the Medicaid expansion as an attack on Tillis (who is the North Carolina House Speaker).

The Huffington Post writes:

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) may be in one of this year's most competitive elections, but she signaled Thursday that she's prepared to fully embrace the benefits of Obamacare as part of her ticket to victory.

During a Senate confirmation hearing for Health and Human Services nominee Sylvia Burwell, Hagan lamented that leaders of her home state decided to opt out of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The result is about 500,000 North Carolina residents who would have qualified for Medicaid are unable to enroll.

I covered this hearing yesterday, and I wouldn’t categorize Hagan’s questions as suggesting she’s prepared to "fully embrace" the law. Her questions focused on the Medicaid expansion—that’s a small part of that law, and it’s not the most controversial aspect of the law. She was not praising the exchanges.

Hagan has negative approval ratings, and that’s been the case for months. In her state, the majority of residents generally disapprove of the healthcare law. Focusing on the Affordable Care Act is a risky move, particularly for Hagan.

HOUSE: GEORGIA

Rep. Hank Johnson (D., Ga.), who is perhaps best known as the Congressman who gave a floor speech on helium—or the one who, in a congressional hearing, worried that Guam may "tip over and, uh, capsize" if it becomes too overpopulated, took office in 2007. He’s facing a primary challenge from former DeKalb County Sheriff Tom Brown.

Election analysts have called Brown a "formidable" challenger, and most local reporters seem to agree with that.

Brown has a strong reputation and has raised a lot of money (according to FEC reports, Brown currently has more cash on hand than Johnson). Johnson narrowly avoided a primary runoff in 2010. The district is solidly blue, but Johnson isn’t a shoe-in—any bad press could be a major problem, and this week there was a little bit of that.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports:

Just in time for the negative ad season, our WSB Radio blogging colleague Jamie Dupree has this:

As the U.S. House last week approved a funding bill for the operations of the legislative branch for 2015, lawmakers voted to freeze the House budget and to again block any pay raise for members.

But they refused to take another step on the budget, rejecting a plan to stop members from using some of their office account money to lease automobiles.

Those from Georgia who are leasing their rides:

– Rep. Hank Johnson D-GA $669.16

– Rep. David Scott D-GA $523.32

– Rep. Phil Gingrey R-GA $479.26

– Rep. John Lewis D-GA $417.93

Given that two of the above names are currently involved in hot primary contests, you can expect to hear more about this.

This isn’t illegal, and there may be legitimate reasons for needing to lease a car, but that’s a different debate and the majority of lawmakers aren’t doing this.

According to the original article, one Texas lawmaker spends $985.64 to lease a hybrid Chevy Tahoe. So while Johnson’s lease seems costly, he may not be leasing something egregious like a Mercedes or Audi.

Regardless, it looks terrible to use taxpayer’s money to lease a vehicle. Johnson’s looks the worst because not only is he leasing a car with taxpayer money, he has the most expensive lease of the other four Georgia Congressmen partaking in the practice. Johnson comes from a district with unemployment at 14.7 percent.

That’s enough to be a viable attack ad against an already weak candidate.