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Ellison's Election Tip Sheet

Ellison Barber election tip sheet

SENATE: GEORGIA

This week the National Review’s Eliana Johnson had a big scoop when she reported on a leaked internal memo from Georgia Democratic Senate hopeful Michelle Nunn.

Nunn, who comes from a Georgia political family, is seen as a strong candidate and the main reason Georgia is now one of the few, and top, seats Democrats think they can turn in November.

Politico outlined 10 key passages of the report:

1. "Identification of vulnerabilities"

The firm NewPartners conducted research on their client to find the most damaging information about her and develop potential lines of pushback. "Within that document, they have pointed out several areas of potential concern in her record," one memo said, including lobbying and legislative activity of Points of Light, the nonprofit she ran in Atlanta. NewPartners planned to conduct additional research on "corporate ‘whitewashing’" at her foundation, two complaints filed against her group with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and grants made to overseas entities. Another area flagged is "conservation easements," Nunn claimed.

The firm made a list of pushback documents to prepare. Among them: Points of Light giving "grants to problematic entities" and "service awards to inmates [and] terrorists."

The 144-page memo is strategic, and not something out of the ordinary—any good campaign would produce something similar to this. To have everyone know that your own campaign found validity in the potential attacks of being "too liberal" or not actually from the state you’re running in, is less than ideal. It provides clear vulnerabilities for Republican’s to exploit. It’s not great for someone else to lob these kinds of attack on a candidate, it’s worse when it’s coming from people inside your campaign who are paid to know all about you.

Nunn has brushed off the memo as unimportant, telling the Atlanta Journal Constitution, "the set of memos were a set of advice that I was getting from a variety of folks. I’m getting advice every day from everybody parents to friends to my children. The nature of campaigns is ever evolving, but what’s remained constant is we’re focused on talking about a collaborative approach and the importance of bipartisanship and problem-solving."

The response echoes the one given to Politico by her campaign manager—it’s old, it’s changing, and bqhatevwr:

"This was a draft of a document that was written eight months ago," Nunn campaign manager Jeff DiSantis said in a statement. "Like all good plans, they change. But what hasn’t changed and is all the more clear today is that Michelle’s opponents are going to mischaracterize her work and her positions, and part of what we’ve always done is to prepare for the false things that are going to be said."

A recent poll found Nunn trailing her Republican challenger, David Perdue, 40 to 49 percent.

A previous Rasmussen poll had Nunn down six points while a poll from Landmark Communications had Perdue down by four.

SENATE: WEST VIRGINIA

Two weeks ago, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) came to West Virginia to campaign for Natalie Tennant—a move I thought was not particularly wise, though others disagree. This week it seems Tennant is attacking her fellow Democrats, in particular the Obama administration.

The Hill reports:

West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Natalie Tennant literally shuts the lights off on the White House in her newest ad.

The gesture — she flips a switch in West Virginia, and the ad cuts to an image of lights going out at the White House — is meant to show her distance from the president on coal, which makes up a sizable portion of her state’s economy.

"Where do they think their electricity comes from? You and I know it's our hardworking West Virginia coal miners that power America," she says in the ad.

Tennant boasts in the ad that she’s worked alongside Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) to protect coal jobs and pledges to "stand up to leaders of both parties who threaten our way of life."

It is interesting that she talks about working with Manchin when she just finished campaigning with Warren, a senator who almost never votes with Manchin, but does vote with the Democratic party 97 percent of the time. That’s a bit hypocritical, and likely muddles her message, but it is telling that she is taking such a clear stance against the White House.

On energy issues, the Obama administration has provided problem after problem for red state Democrats. Tennant’s ad is further evidence that the administration’s energy actions may please the far left of the party, but it’s very damaging and politically dangerous for already vulnerable Democrats.

SENATE: MICHIGAN

This is a race that doesn’t get talked about very often because it’s considered "likely Democrat," and as Sabato’s Crystal Ball points out "it is difficult for any Republican to win a statewide election here."

Right now that is proving true, and the most recent Rasmussen poll has Democrat Rep. Gary Peters up by six.

Rasmussen notes:

Democratic Congressman Gary Peters has now taken the lead over Republican Terri Lynn Land in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Michigan Voters finds Peters with a six-point advantage—45 percent to 39 percent—over Land, a former Michigan secretary of state. Six percent like some other candidate in the race, and 10 percent are undecided.

On average Peters holds around a four-point lead, but as Real Clear Politics notes, neither candidate has 50 percent. The race could change, but his Republican opponent, who was previously ahead, has seen her advantage consistently fall since March and "for now, Peters looks like he has the lead."

Peters made national news when his legal team told local TV stations not to air an ad featuring a cancer patient who criticized Obamacare and the congressman.