My must read of the day is "Senate Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a Republican Majority," in Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball’s outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated.
The GOP needs at least a net gain of six seats to win back Congress’ upper chamber. But the math is complicated by Sen. Pat Roberts’ (R) struggles in Kansas against independent Greg Orman, and even if Roberts wins, the GOP may not get to 51 seats until after Dec. 6 (Louisiana’s runoff) or even Jan. 6, 2015 (Georgia’s runoff), making it difficult to actually call the Senate for Republicans even this close to Nov. 4.
A rundown of the arithmetic at this point: The GOP looks certain to win Democratic-controlled seats in Montana and West Virginia, both of which we rate as Safe Republican. While ex-Gov. Mike Rounds (R) hasn’t had an easy go of it in South Dakota — thus our Leans Republican rating there — he is still in a decent position to beat Rick Weiland (D) and independent ex-Republican Sen. Larry Pressler in a three-way race. A win in the Mount Rushmore State would give the GOP three pickups.
Down south in Arkansas, Sen. Mark Pryor’s (D) hopes seem to be fading to some degree: A new Talk Business/Hendrix College poll found Rep. Tom Cotton (R) leading the incumbent 49%-41%. While Pryor isn’t completely down and out, it’s increasingly hard to see him overcoming Arkansas’ hard shift to the right. We’re upgrading Cotton’s chances from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Republicans are hopeful that they’ve put this one away, and the trend line for Democrats is not good.
Republicans are expected to pick up Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota (even though the Republican candidate Gov. Rounds has come into a bit of trouble for his support of a controversial visa program). Then they need three other seats, provided they don’t lose any that they currently hold, and can likely get those in Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana or Iowa.
North Carolina, which was supposed to be an easy flip, is still technically close but is leaning blue.
At the start of this election cycle the general expectation was that Republicans would hold on to all the seats they currently have and then simply need to add 6 in a favorable environment. It seemed that it could be easily achieved, but Kansas and Georgia are complicating that.
Republicans are far from out of the hole in Kansas, but a victory for Michelle Nunn in Georgia seems more possible than Roberts losing in Kansas.
Kansas is a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s. It’s a heavily red state. A month ago independent Greg Orman was ahead by 10 points, but in the past couple of weeks the gap has significantly narrowed and it seems like Roberts can, just barely, hold on to his seat.
The thing that puts Republicans in a better position, even with the possibility of a loss in Georgia or Kansas is somewhere like Iowa–and to a lesser extend Colorado. Both are races that were not thought to be in play for Republicans. Both are now in play, Iowa most of all, and that gives Republicans a bit of cushion if they were to lose a seat they currently hold.
The overall outcome of the Senate might be "too close to call," but Republicans have been able to hold on to the position they began the cycle with–they’re still well positioned to take control of the Senate.